ILCE's BLOG

The act of sabotage in France against the rail network in the run-up to the opening ceremony of the Olympics is undoubtedly encompassed by the EU’s definition of an act of terror against critical infrastructure, unlike the sabotage against a cable in 2022,which NATO henceforth would be within the remit of NATO.

It is the French authorities’ responsibility to investigate the crime and persecute the criminals.

Under current rules, it is for the member states’ to invoke the EU’s alliance clause, where solidarity is de rigeur in the event of acts of terror and natural disasters.

Lets explore techniques for assessing radicalization and offender backgrounds:

The EU’s approach

The European Union (EU) takes a comprehensive approach to counter terrorism and radicalization. Here are some key aspects:

1. Prevention of Radicalization:
   • The EU focuses on removing terrorist content online, preventing radicalization among prison inmates, and supporting rehabilitation and reintegration efforts.
   • Victims of terrorism also receive assistance.
2. Protection:
   • The European Commission supports EU countries in enhancing the protection of citizens and critical infrastructures against terrorist threats, especially in public spaces.
   • Ensuring resilience against physical and cyber-attacks is crucial.
3. Fight Against Financing of Terrorism:
   • The EU adapts its instruments and measures to deny terrorists access to resources.
   • Constant vigilance is necessary as terrorists and their supporters modify their methods.

4. Cooperation and Coordination:
   • While EU countries have front-line responsibility for security, EU-wide cooperation is essential.
   • All relevant EU and national actors collaborate to tackle terrorist threats, regardless of the ideology pursued by terrorists.

In summary, the EU’s strategy aims to anticipate, prevent, protect, and respond to terrorist threats effectively

     Application

1. Eu Counter-Terrorism/ COTER Network

The EEAS manages the CT Terrorism Network, which comprises experts deployed in Eu Delegations worldwide. These experts can collaborate to analyze the incident, as originally intended when placed in the Council under CT Coordinator’s office.

They should assess under the remit of the CT-advisor of the EEAS the impact on critical infrastructure, identify vulnerabilities, and recommend preventive measures.

• NATO-EU Task Force on Critical Infastructure Resilience

Nato and EU released a Final Assesment on critical infrastructure resilience.

The EU’s CT network should study the report to understand vulnerabilities and potential targets.

• Background targets and Risk Assesment

Analyze the offenders’ backgrounds, including personal struggles, experiences with discrimination, and social integration.

Conduct risk assesments to understand their potential for violence and radicalization.

• Prison and Probation Context

Consider the prison and probation context for violent extremist offenders (VEO’s)

Explore rehabilitation strategies, prison conditions, and reintegration efforts.

• Multi-agency Cooperation:

Collaborate with various agencies, including law enforcement, intelligence services, and  NGO’s.

Share information and insights to build a comprehensive picture.

• Psychological mechanisms

Understand psychological factors involved in radicalization.

Extreme conviction and idealistic approaches may play a role.

• Gender responsive Approach

Prioritize gender-responsive counter-terrorism policies.

Consider the role of women and girls in in CT and P/CVE efforts.

• Looking inside

Examine the behavior of police officers, their motives and the effects in the receiving end and the violence emitted from our institutions, their malpractices and abusive methods contorting the human situation.

Draw conclusions on why our authorities should not abet humanity in losing the keys to paradise conferring an entirely meaning to lupus est homo homini.

Hypotheses:

Based on the available information, let’s create a hypothesis-based profile of the perpetrators of the recent sabotage on France’s high-speed rail network:

1. Eco-Terrorists: Eco-terrorists could be motivated by environmental concerns. They might target critical infrastructure to raise awareness about ecological issues. However, there is no direct evidence linking them to this specific incident¹.
2. Organized Crime: Organized crime groups might engage in sabotage for various reasons, including extortion, revenge, or territorial disputes. However, such groups typically focus on financial gains rather than ideological motives.
3. Extreme Right-Wing: While extreme right-wing individuals or groups have targeted infrastructure in the past, there is no specific indication that they were involved in this case¹.
4. Russia: Given geopolitical tensions, Russia could be a candidate. However, without concrete evidence, it remains speculative¹.
5. Iran: The warning from Israel’s Foreign Minister about Iranian terrorist proxies plotting to derail events adds an interesting dimension. However, this remains an assertion without direct proof¹.
6. Either of the Two Acting Through Organized Criminals: Collaboration between state actors (Russia or Iran) and organized criminals is plausible but challenging to confirm¹.

Likelihood Assessment:

• Eco-Terror: Low likelihood due to lack of evidence.
• Organized Crime: Moderate likelihood, considering their history of targeting infrastructure.
• Extreme Right-Wing: Low likelihood without specific indicators.
• Russia: Speculative; low to moderate likelihood.
• Iran: Speculative; low to moderate likelihood.
• Collaboration: Difficult to assess; speculative.

Remember that this analysis is based on available information, and further investigation is necessary to pinpoint the actual perpetrators.

Implications

The political implications  of France’s high-speed rail network has already had significant consequences:

1. Disruption of Transportation: Delays, cancellations, and rerouting of trains can inconvenience passengers and disrupt travel plans.
2. Economic Impact: Damage to rail infrastructure affects commerce, trade, and supply chains. It can lead to financial losses for businesses and the economy.
3. Safety Risks: Derailments or accidents pose risks to passengers, crew, and nearby communities. Lives could be endangered.
4. Public Confidence: Such incidents erode public trust in transportation systems and security measures.
5. Investigation Costs: Investigating and repairing the damage require resources and time.
6. National Security Implications: Sabotage highlights vulnerabilities and may prompt security reviews.

Efforts to restore normalcy and enhance security will be crucial

NATO-EU

The Eu is destined to assume full responsibility for acts of terrorism, but this doesn’t mean NATO and EU cant reinforce collaboration until DG Defence is up and running and the treaties revised.

1. Increased Engagement: The EU and NATO should collaborate more closely, leveraging synergies. They can engage in dedicated scenario-based discussions, such as through the EU-NATO Foresight Seminar, to address major hazards and security context changes.
2. Security by Design: Promote engagement among Allies, Member States, and the private sector. Encourage security by design principles for critical infrastructure to prevent vulnerabilities.
3. Mitigating Measures: Develop key principles to improve resilience. Propose mitigating measures and remedial actions to address strategic vulnerabilities.

Randy Borum radicalization into Violent Extremism II: A review of Conceptual Models and Empirical Research, Journal of Strategic Security,vol.4, 2011.

What we do: Policies and actions

Counter-Terrorism

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/counter-terrorism_en?

NATO-EU

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216631.htm?

Approaches to violent extremist offenders and countering radicalization in prisons and probation

Council of Europe Committee on Counter-Terrorism

https://www.coe.int/en/web/counter-terrorism/cdct?

https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-09/ran_pp_approaches_to_violent_extremist_en.pdf?

Understanding domestic Radicalization and Terrorism – A National Issue within a global context.

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/understanding-domestic-radicalization-and-terrorism?

A note on Joint Investigatory Team (JIT)

The US authorties have recommended to establish Joint Investigation Teams (JITs) into the circumstances of the teror attack in Burgos and its link to an incident , provoked by PET in Odense, in order to determine the degree of responsibiity by the involved police agents and the Israeli and Iranian intelloigenc eservices present in Odense or feeding Sarah’s Lunnd and her three colaborators, the Honey Trap Tina Dyhr Dupont, MOna Muslim and and the male agent and those agents auhorising the op, which was racted to and later coverewd-up by an attempt to bambuzzle me.

A JIT are collaborative efforts between countries to investigate cross-border criminal activities. Here’s how they work:

1. Purpose and Duration:
   • JITs are set up for a specific purpose and operate for a limited period (which can be renewed with agreement).
   • The EU countries involved decide on the JIT’s composition, purpose, and duration.
2. Initiative and Composition:
   • Any EU country can propose the establishment of a JIT.
   • The countries involved typically include those affected by the criminal activity or those with relevant information.
   • In your example, Poland, Bulgaria, and Denmark could take the initiative if they have a stake in the investigation.
3. Intelligence Services and Responsibility:
   • JITs can investigate various aspects, including intelligence services’ involvement.
   • If there are suspicions about Ehud Barak, Mossad, PET (Danish intelligence), or Iranian intelligence in the Odense incident, a JIT could explore this angle.
   • JITs allow cooperation and sharing of information among agencies.
4. Denmark’s Involvement:
   • Given Denmark’s local authorities’ track record, it’s essential to consider their participation in a JIT.
   • A thorough investigation could shed light on the alleged budgeted operation in the Skibhus-quarter in Odense.

Remember that JITs enhance cooperation, facilitate evidence exchange, and strengthen cross-border investigations.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/summary/joint-investigation-teams.html

https://www.spymuseum.org/education-programs/spy-resources/language-of-espionage

ELEMENTS FOR A COMMON POSITION ON IGC2023

https://anti-fraud.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9aaf6dbc-fb25-4603-865e-94ff167b5b9f_en?filename=jits-practical-guide_en.pdf

https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/internal-security/counter-terrorism-and-radicalisation_en

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2022/739213/EPRS_IDA%282022%29739213_EN.pdf

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2022/739213/EPRS_IDA%282022%29739213_EN.pdf

• A mock-up

The European Union has enemies and security interests and is about to endow itself with lethal powers under the revised Frontex border guard regulation. The Europol is also set to be strengthened. Creating a profile of a politician from a crime agency perspective, would involve several key elements:

Personal Information:

Full name: Itamar Ben Gvir

Date of Birth: 6 May 1976

Place of Birth: Mevaseret Zion, Israel.

Father’s Name: Meir Ben Gvir( Secularist from Iraq)

Nationality: Israeli

Current position: Minister of National Security since December 2022.

Political background:

Political Party: Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power)

Previous Affiliation:  Kach

Political Ideology: Far-right, Kahanist, Anti-Arab.

Criminal record and legal issues:

Indictments and Convictions: Multiple indictments and at least eight convictions for crimes including incitement to racism and support for terrorist organization.

Notable Incidents:

Threatened Yitzhak Rabin on live television.

Had a portrait of Baruch Goldstein in his living room.

Controversial Actions and Statements:

Inciting violent clashes between Jewish settlers and Palestineans in Sheikh Jarrah.

Visiting temple Mount leading to intrenational criticism (2023)

Calls for expulsion for the expulsion of arab citizens who are not loyal to the state.

Arming settlers following the storm on Israel by Hamas

Questioning of the status quo on the Temple Mount, and intends to allow jews to pray on the Temple Mount.

Professional background

Occupation: Lawyer

Specialisation: Defending Jews accused of extremist terrorism.

Personal life:

Married to Ayala Nimrodi with six children.

Education: Ono Academic College.

Security Concerns:

Potential Threats: Due to his extremist views and actions, Ben-Gvir is a polarizing figure, inciting violence and unrest.

Symbolic value: A representative of a counter-ideological political project to Theodor Herzl Judenstaat , and the Israel the Eu wants and can recognise itself in. His political project and his family history represents everything that has gone wrong in Israel in terms of failure of integration and regressive behaviour by free-wheeling proto fascistic fin de regne oppor-tunists and fringe elements preparing to take center stage due to failures of leadership by Israeli politicians and the pressure cooker of the Israeli migrant society and laxity towards the ultra-orthodox sector.

The security apparatus has failed to eliminate him, as a threat to public order, the upholding of Israel’s international obligations and now its contractual obligations to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Recommended Action:

Tracking as a mean to an aim.

Boycott from attending public events in the European Union.

Other restrictive sanctions.

If this doesn’t work, we recommend targeting him as a wake-up call and as a reminder to Israel about who they are and as a sanitizing intervention into the flaunting Israeli polity.

1. Current Intelligence landscape

Since the 1979 Revolution, Iran has developed over a dozen intelligence agencies. These agencies engage in both domestic and foreign intelligence, reporting to different government ministries, military branches, or police forces.

The two most powerful branches are:

Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS):

Under the executive branch, it conducts sophisticated operations worldwide to counter threats to the regime, revolutionary ideology, andinterests.It also engages in cyper campaigns.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpse Intelligence Organisation (IRGC-IO).

Part of the military it plays a significant role in Iran’s intelligence landscape.

• Competences and overlaps

These agencies often overlap in their missions, leading to competition for resources and influence.

They carry out foreign operations, including assassinations, bombings, and cyberattacks on six continents.

Their counterintelligence efforts aim to prevent infiltration by adversaries.

• Streamlining proposal

Consolidation: Merge overlapping agencies to reduce redundancy.

Five key agencies:

MOIS and IRGC–IO remain due to their prominence.

VEVAK ( Iran’s external intelligence agency) should be retained.

General Office of Counter-Intelligence: Coordinating body) remains.

Cyper Intelligence Agency: Focus on cyper threats

Domestic Intelligence Agency: Addresses internal security.

• Institution-Building needs:

Training: Enhance skills in intelligence analysis, cypersecurity and counter-intelligence.

Coordination: Strengthen inter-agency collaboration.

Transparency: Improve information sharing.

Ethics: Ensure adherence to legal and ethical standards. Embed Human rights officers in all five services.

• Legislative Requirements:

Reform laws: Clarify roles, responsibilities, and overight mechanisms.

Budget allocation: Allocate resources efficiently.

Accountability: Establish mechanism for oversight and accountability.

• Policy Developments

Strategic Priorities: Align intelligence efforts with national security goals.

Risk Assesment: Regularly asses threats and adjust priorities.

Technology Investment: Invest in cutting-edge tools for intelligence gathering.

By implementing these changes, Iran’s intelligence community can become more effective, focused, and agile across all disciplines.

What are the challenges to rational organization of Irna’s intelligence community?

1.Political resistance:

Powerful factions within the government may resist consolidation or reforms due to vested interests.

Agencies may fear losing influence or resources.

2. Cultural and Historical factors:

Iran’s intelligence agencies have deep historical roots and are intertwined with the revolutionary ideology and staffed by Khomeini’s thugs.

Changing structure may face cultural resistance.

3. Secrecy and Trust issues:

Intelligence agencies thrive on secrecy. Sharing information across agencies could be met with suspicion.

Trust-building measures are essential.

4. Legal and Constitutional Constraints

Reforms may require amendments to existing laws and regulations.

Balancing security needs with civil liberties is delicate.

5. Resource allocation

Consolidation may lead to resource reallocation challenges.

Ensuring adequate funding for streamlined agencies is crucial.

6.Operational Continuity:

Transitioning to a new structure without disrupting ongoing operations is complex.

Maintaining intelligence capabilities during the transition is vital.

7.Public Perception and Accountability

    Citizens may be wary of intelligence agencies’ power.

     Establishing transparent oversight is essential.

8.External factors

Regional tensions and geopolitical dynamics impact intelligence priorities.

Cooperation or friction with other nations’ intelligence services affects operations.

In summary, balancing security imperatives, political realities, and public trust will be critical in implementing these changes.

What are the lessons learned from other countries intelligence reforms ?

1. Case Studies

Study successful intelligence reforms in countries like the United States, the Uk and Germany.

Analyze their structural changes, oversight mechanisms, and resource allocation.

• Expert consultations

Engage with international experts, academics, and practioners.

Seek advice on best practices, legal frameworks, and organisational models.

• Regional partnerships

Collaborate with neighbouring countries or regional organisations.

Share experiences, attend workshops,and learn from their intelligence community reforms.

• Transparency and Accountability

Emphasise transparency in intelligence operations.

Establish independent oversight bodies to ensure accountability.

• Legislative reforms:

Review and update existing laws governing intelligence agencies.

Align legislation with modern security challenges and civil liberties.

• Resource Optimization

Learn from countries that have streamlined their agencies.

Prioritise resource allocation based on threat assessments.

• Cultural Adaptation

Understand cultural nuances affecting intelligence practices.

Adapt reforms to fit Iran’s unique context. Remember to tailor the reforms to Iran’s specific needs and challenges.

How can Iran balance security imperatives with civil liberties during reforms ?

1. Legal safeguards:

Clear laws: Develop legislation that defines agencies’ powers, limitations, and oversight mechanisms.

Judicial review: Allow courts to assess the legality of intelligence actions.

• Oversight mechanism

Independent Bodies: Establish oversight committees with representatives from various sectors ( legislative, judiciary, civil society).

Regular audits: Conduct audits to ensure compliance with legal norms.

• Transparency:

Public reporting: Release annual reports on agency activities and strategies.

Redacted Information: Share relevant information while protecting sensitive sources.

• Privacy Protections:

Warrants: Require warrants for surveillance or searches.

Data Retention limits: Define how long data can be stored.

• Civil Society engagement:

Consultations: Involve civil society liberties groups, academics , and human rights advocates in policy discussions.

• Training and Ethics

Ethics and Training: Ensure intelligence personnel understand civil liberties principles.

Whistleblower Protection: encourage reporting and abuses.

• Emergency Powers:

Limited Duration: Define emergency powers and their duration.

Majlis’ approval: Require legislative approval for extended emergency measures.

A comprehensive debt reduction strategy in the Eurozone could be structured as follows:

1. Historical Perspective on Debt: As David Graeber outlines in his book “Debt: The First 5000 Years”, debt has played a significant role in societies throughout history. It has been used as a tool for state-building, controlling others, and limiting their actions. Understanding this historical context is crucial for formulating an effective debt reduction strategy.
2. Legislative Requirements: The Eurozone needs to implement legislative reforms that promote fiscal responsibility and debt reduction. This could include laws that limit the amount of debt that member countries can take on and regulations that encourage transparency in public finances.
3. Fiscal Governance: Drawing from Professor Benjamin Cohen’s 2007 RIPE piece, strengthening the fiscal governance framework of the EU is crucial. This involves improving the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending, enhancing the transparency and accountability of fiscal policies, and ensuring that fiscal rules are adhered to.
4. Capital Markets Union: The creation of a Capital Markets Union can help diversify funding sources, improve the stability of the financial system, and facilitate the flow of capital across the Eurozone.
5. Liberalisation of the Retail Market: Liberalising the retail market in the EU can stimulate competition, lower prices, and improve the quality of goods and services. This can boost consumer spending, which in turn can help reduce debt levels.
6. Harmonisation of Debt Issuance Calendars: Ahead of the next big bang enlargement in 2030, harmonising debt issuance calendars across the Eurozone can help synchronise fiscal policies and promote financial stability.
7. Policy-Related Aspects: Policies should be implemented to promote economic growth, reduce unemployment, and increase productivity. These can include structural reforms, investment in infrastructure and education, and policies that promote research and development.
8. Institutional Requirements: Institutions play a crucial role in debt reduction. They need to be strong enough to enforce fiscal rules, monitor debt levels, and implement necessary reforms.
9. Franco-German Structured Rivalry and Supranational Leadership: The enduring Franco-German rivalry has shaped the EU. However, the failure of supranational leadership to take smooth and forceful action has often hindered progress. Overcoming this rivalry and strengthening supranational leadership is crucial for the successful implementation of a debt reduction strategy.

In conclusion, debt plays a significant role in state-building. It is a resource that, when managed properly, can contribute to the development and prosperity of a nation. However, when mismanaged, it can lead to economic instability and hardship. Therefore, a comprehensive and effective debt reduction strategy is essential for the economic health and stability of the Eurozone.

Given the complexity and diversity of the Eurozone, it’s challenging to provide detailed country-by-country recommendations on institution-building, policy development, and legislation. However, I can provide some general guidelines that could be tailored to each country’s specific context:

1. Institution-Building: Institutions play a crucial role in managing debt and implementing fiscal policies. Countries should focus on strengthening their institutions, particularly those related to fiscal management. This could involve enhancing the capacity of these institutions, improving their governance structures, and ensuring their independence.
2. Policy Development: Policies should be designed to promote economic growth, reduce unemployment, and increase productivity. This could involve structural reforms, investment in infrastructure and education, and policies that promote research and development.
3. Legislation: Legislative reforms that promote fiscal responsibility and debt reduction should be implemented. This could include laws that limit the amount of debt that member countries can take on and regulations that encourage transparency in public finances.

As for the optimal level of debt, it’s important to note that there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. The optimal level of debt can vary depending on a country’s specific economic conditions and fiscal capacity. However, the EU treaties have enshrined an upper limit to the debts of member states relative to their economic output. Their debt-to-GDP ratio should not exceed 60%. At the end of 2022, the EU general government gross debt decreased to 84.0 % of GDP.

Regarding the introduction of an EU-tax, the European Commission has adopted a Tax Package that aims to make taxation fairer, simpler, and more adapted to modern technologies. The proposal, called “Business in Europe: Framework for Income Taxation” (BEFIT), will introduce a new, single set of rules to determine the tax base of groups of companies. This is part of the EU’s broader efforts to forge a stronger fiscal-military actor at the heart of Eurasia

Please note that these are general recommendations and each country within the Eurozone may need to tailor these guidelines to their specific context and needs. It’s also important to keep in mind that any changes to fiscal policies or debt levels should be done in consultation with relevant stakeholders and in accordance with EU regulations and guidelines.

Summary

The reduction of debt in the eurozone ahead of stage 4 – the harmonization of debt issuance calendars – are likely timed to coincide with structural change in the international system and to consolidate the movement of the EU towards a tightly integrated fiscal-military actor. That is it implies a theory of change in the polarity of the international system linked to state-building processes in Europe.

Given views are converging on the finalité politique of the Eu integration project and Professor Cohen’s piece has been out now for 17 years, it follows it is presupposed by the prolongation of the Franco-German tandem’s sway over high politics in the European Union. This, by far, doesn’t imply the Eu institutions should not try and even out differences and should nor report to duty when called on or when into the mood for co-creation of the remunarated version, bien-sur.,-

For some time, the ECB has been clamoring for advancing the capital market union given  its concern for balance sheet recession following the debt crisis, the return to growth in the European economy and the interest in promoting the EU’s open strategic autonomy.

This signals a need for how to tie in a debt reduction strategy during UVLII and how to proceed on the different stages of BJC’s rocket towards 2030. At this point, France and Germany has decided to move forward on harmonization of the debt issuance calendars in the Eurozone, only.

Clearly, there is a need for consultations with Professor Cohen on what he had in mind, how to strengthen tax governance in EU and the Member States,  the purposes an EU tax could be used for based on pilot projects within budget and time likely at regional level, and the format of and content of the legislative framework underpinning the Eurozone debt reduction strategy in the run-up to 2030.

Two possibilities:

The institutional track: The ECB’s preference for preventing balance sheet recession and promoting the EU’s open strategic actor-hood is sized for conducting a review of the Capital Markets Union Action Plan. Parallel to this, an administrative reorganization is undertaken in EEAS, whereby the SP Unit on strategies, an SP-Unit on thematic issues, and action plans in the Eu delegation are implemented, while the EU Commission publicizes a strategy for debt reduction in the €urozone.

The Berlin-Brussels-Paris Track: A strategy on debt reduction in the €urozone will be published to coincide with consensus on implementing the CMU Action Plan on outstanding issues following EP elections in conjunction with the Draghi report on competitiveness.

https://theknowledge.io/david-graebers-debt-the-first-5000-years/

https://academic.oup.com/book/44055/chapter-abstract/371943686?redirectedFrom=fulltext

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2022/08/31/Reforming-the-EU-Fiscal-Framework-Strengthening-the-Fiscal-Rules-and-Institutions-The-EUs-518388

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41295-023-00344-6

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0pt8p8g4

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2023/747906/EPRS_BRI%282023%29747906_EN.pdf

https://www.ijfmr.com/papers/2023/6/9201.pdf

https://news.yale.edu/2023/09/28/pawn-states-exploring-costs-external-debt-nation-building

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_sheet_recession

https://www.amazon.com/Escape-Balance-Sheet-R

ecession-Trap/dp/1119028124/ref=sr_1_2?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.2NsIgNNU5L7UjkCHzKbI4y3YVuoIv_KLK2Xc3CgXqwbfFoLTBurkxew8XV_PWGDibNUAD7LNcGX81NxnEfKmIlY3trbHoVzH16E7DGNWez13W4ntNs75IjpeljlBsW6y9rP0U3UDZgWCYqKyxpM6h9-ex6_6tZeX5GDiTmCe8rtngLPz2jDmjDNMKUfelGAbPJ-tvAZmYyTmJv44iPY7OQ-cieyx5kZV4boHJJE5u8A.8Kpm5zsEc4HUgInCVxBR2jiQ1Ijf1o8sijVsQiNgOiw&dib_tag=se&qid=1711985327&refinements=p_27%3ARichard+C.+Koo&s=books&sr=1-2&text=Richard+C.+Koo

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4610456

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op311~5065ff588c.en.pdf

The Principle of Double Effect is often invoked in ethical discussions. It states that if an action has foreseeable harmful effects that are practically inseparable from the good effect, it may be justifiable under certain conditions. Here are the key criteria for applying this principle:

1. The nature of the act itself must be good or at least morally neutral.
2. The agent intends the good effect and does not intend the bad effect, either as a means to the good or as an end in itself.
3. The good effect outweighs the bad effect in circumstances sufficiently grave to justify causing the bad effect.
4. The agent exercises restraint to minimisez harmful effects

In essence, the principle distinguishes between intended consequences and those that are foreseen but not directly intended. It helps evaluate the permissibility of actions when there’s a moral tension between positive and negative outcomes.

For instance, consider the act of self-defense: preserving one’s own life (intended) while also resulting in the killing of an aggressor (unintended). The principle recognizes this dual effect and provides a framework for ethical evaluation

Remember that this principle is a philosophical tool, and its application can vary based on context and interpretation

1. Principles of EU’s Asia Policy:
   • Rules-Based Order: The EU promotes a rules-based international order grounded in shared values, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
   • Inclusive Cooperation: The EU engages in long-term, principled multilateral cooperation with Asian partners.
   • Commitment to Democracy: The EU advocates for resilient forms of democracy and democratic governance in the region.
   • Respect for Human Rights: Upholding human rights is a fundamental principle in EU-Asia relations.
2. Parameters for Review:
   • China Relations: Managing the EU’s relationship with an assertive China using a multifaceted approach.
   • Strategic Partnerships: Deepening ties with strategic partners such as India, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN.
   • Indo-Pacific Focus: Reinforcing the EU’s presence and actions in the Indo-Pacific.
   • Afghanistan Support: Continuing partnership and support for the Afghan people.
   • Engagement with DPRK: Maintaining critical engagement with North Korea.
   • Rohingya Crisis: Addressing root causes and facilitating the return of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar.
   • Connectivity: Building sustainable transport, digital, energy, and people-to-people networks between Europe and Asia.
3. From Asia-Pacific to Asia Strategy:
   • Shift in Focus: Transitioning from a broader Asia-Pacific strategy to a more targeted Asia strategy.
   • Reasons for Shift:
     • Geopolitical Dynamics: Rising challenges and tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
     • Trade and Supply Chains: Ensuring stability amid trade tensions and supply chain disruptions.
     • Security Concerns: Addressing security threats in the region.
   • Ensuring EU’s Role:
     • Principled Engagement: The EU’s commitment to shared values and multilateral cooperation remains unchanged.
     • Long-Term Approach: Sustained engagement for stability, security, and prosperity.
     • Human Security: Prioritizing the well-being of people in the region.

In summary, the EU’s Asia strategy emphasizes cooperation, stability, and adherence to democratic principles. By focusing on Asia and the Indo-Pacific and maintaining a principled approach, the EU aims to be a force for positive change in Asia’s growth and stability.

The European Union (EU) maintains a multifaceted engagement with China, focusing on both trade and security matters. Let’s delve into the specifics:

1. Trade Relations:
   • Open Trading Relations: The EU is committed to open trade with China.
   • Expectations from China:
     • Fair Trade Practices: China is expected to adhere to fair trade practices.
     • Intellectual Property Rights: Respect for intellectual property rights.
     • WTO Obligations: Fulfill its obligations as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
   • Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI):
     • Negotiated in 2020, the CAI aims to grant EU investors greater access to China’s market.
     • Not yet ratified or in force.
     • Covers market access, state-owned enterprises, subsidies, and technology transfer.
     • Sets high standards for transparency and sustainable development.
     • EU continues work on autonomous measures related to subsidies and due diligence.
2. Security and Human Rights:
   • Human Rights Dialogue: The EU resumed the Human Rights Dialogue with China in 2023.
   • One China Policy: The EU reaffirms its consistent One China policy.
   • Taiwan Strait Tensions: The EU expresses concerns about increased tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
3. Long-Term Bilateral Relations:
   • Investment Agreement: The EU-China Investment Agreement ensures fairer treatment for EU companies in China.
   • Transparency and Level Playing Field: Commitments cover state-owned enterprises, subsidies, and technology transfer.
   • Sustainable Development: Provisions address climate and forced labor.

In summary, the EU engages with China through principled trade relations, investment agreements, and dialogues on human rights and security. Balancing economic interests with values remains a priority for the EU in its interactions with China.

EU’s Strategic Partnerships with Japan, India, and South Korea:

1. Japan:
   • Drivers and Outcomes:
     • Geopolitical Interests: Shared commitment to a rules-based international order.
     • Economic Cooperation: Collaboration on trade, investment, and technology.
     • Security Cooperation: Joint naval exercises, counter-terrorism efforts.
   • Limitations: Geopolitical value remains modest in the Asia-Pacific context.
   • Example: EU-Japan cooperation in Operation Atalanta near the Horn of Africa.
2. India:
   • Drivers and Outcomes:
     • Strategic Partnership: Strengthening economic ties and addressing global challenges.
     • Digital Cooperation: Enhancing digital collaboration and sustainable extraction of raw materials.
   • Limitations: Geopolitical impact still primarily economic.
   • Example: EU-India Digital Partnership Agreement.
3. South Korea:
   • Drivers and Outcomes:
     • Strategic Choice: Prioritizing negotiation and strategic decisions.
     • Security Cooperation: Participation in regional navy exercises.
   • Limitations: Similar modest geopolitical value in the Asia-Pacific context.
   • Example: Cooperation in maritime security and cybersecurity.

Way Forward:

1. Conclusion of SPA and EPA:
   • Strategic Partnership Agreements (SPA):
     • Strengthen political dialogue, security cooperation, and economic ties.
     • Address shared challenges such as climate change and terrorism.
   • Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA):
     • Facilitate trade, investment, and sustainable development.
     • Enhance connectivity and supply chains.
2. Role of ASEM Framework:
   • Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM):
     • Informal Platform: Dialogue and cooperation between Asia and Europe.
     • Global Weight: Represents 65% of global GDP, 60% of global population, and significant trade and tourism.
     • Multilateral Solutions: Upholds international law and promotes regional stability.
     • Examples: Joint efforts on cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and connectivity.
3. Strengthening ASEM:
   • Policy Ideas: Foster exchange of ideas and best practices.
   • Smart Security Enabler: Use advanced member state capabilities to build partners’ capacities.
   • Economic Cooperation: Collaborate on sustainable raw material extraction and digital technologies.

Relevance of Other Multilateral Frameworks:

• ASEAN: EU’s strategic partnership with ASEAN enhances security cooperation and economic ties.
• SAARC: Cooperation with South Asian countries on regional stability and development.
• Other Bilateral and Regional Agreements: EU’s engagement with China, Russia, and other Asian partners.

In summary, the EU’s strategic partnerships with Japan, India, and South Korea are vital for stability, economic growth, and addressing global challenges. Strengthening ASEM and other multilateral frameworks ensures a cooperative and rules-based international system.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/china/european-union-and-china_en?s=166

https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/china_en

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/12/07/24th-eu-china-summit-engaging-to-promote-our-values-and-defend-our-interests/pdf

https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/the-eu-and-japan-forging-joint-opportunities-for-global-technology-governance-beyond-great-power-rivalry/

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10308-008-0210-2

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/628265/EPRS_BRI%282018%29628265_EN.pdf

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/asia-europe-meeting-asem_en

I en tale for lang tid siden citerede Richard von Weiszäcker dette jødiske ordsprog  for sit publikum: ”At glemme forlænger eksilet. Frelsens hemmelighed hedder erindring”. Pointen var, at Tysklands selvmord på Europa gik gennem soning med sine jødiske ofre.

Marco Evrastti, en  dansk-chilensk har et andet take. Siden 2007 har hans kunstværk Rolexgate, der forestiller banegården til Auschwitz, været udstillet i kælderen på Galleri Trapholdt, som et momento om ikke at gentage historien. Den er som bekendt lavet af guldtænder, nogle af hvilke  stammer fra Holocaust-offre. Det er på den måde at kunstneren ønsker at meditere over sin skæbne og sin tro og det tomrum, folkedrabet på jøderne har efterladt i Europa. Han er i dag konverteret til buddishmen. Der er ingen tvivl om, at jødernes lidelser ikke er slut endnu, men er det ensbetydende at vi skal blive hængende i konceptkunst og installationer ?

Lad mig ikke spare min ord: Det er det mest bizarre museums-stykke jeg har set i mands minde.

Selvfølgelig er Dostojevskijs Optegnelser fra Kælderdybet baseret på begyndelsen på afviklingen af en fortid, en fortid der forekommer stadigt mere afgørende og oprindelig, jo længere disse værker kommer på afstand af den. Tinderne kommer nærmere, eftersom bjergbestigernes horisont udvider sig, fortæller René Girard i sin bog Fra Dobbelt-gænger til Enhed om Dostojevskij. Det retfærdiggører opstillingen, hvis formålet måtte være at opforde koldingenserne til sandhedssøgen om byen, til at blive sig selv, at komme hinanden mere ved, at være mindre autonome, bedre organiseret. Trapholt provokerer så at sige byrådet til at træde i karakter og føre 6.k op til sin maksimale ydekraft. Guderne skal vide der findes både tonedøve og tunge i røven-typer i byen ved siden af den driftige handelsstand, som tænger til et spark bagi. Trapholt bitcher byen.  Få så fingeren ud, Kolding !

Da Rolexgate blev udstillet for første gang, inden den blev anskaffet af Trapholt i 2007 mødte det overalt på massiv kritik. Kombinationen af luxus og symbolet på folkedrabet på jøderne var kontroversiel. Brugen af menneskelige rester fra jøder vakte tilsvarende forargelse.   Evraistti’s mål var at kritisere Schweiz’ rolle i Holocaust ved at exponere spænd-ningen mellem velstand, tid og historisk trauma. Jødiske organisatiner reagerede på udstillingen af værket med bekymirng og uro, opfordring til dialog, kritik af kunsterens valg samt anerkendelse af kunstens betydning.

Det er næppe det eneste problem. Problemet er, at for at løse et politisk og bureakratisk problem i Kolding er Trapholt fastholdt i en forbigangen æras koncepter om installations-kunst, der dels mangler kvalitet dels er utilstrækkeligt forankret og foryer tradtionen. Rabbi Nilton Bonder i sin bog Immoral Soul minder os om, at ved gendannelsen af Israel, at vi skal skabe noget nyt og rigtigt i stedet for at engagere os i politiske eventyr. Blandt den frygt der plager det kollektivt ubevidste, indtager frygten for ikke at indfrie sæden en særlig plads blandt jøderne.

Det minder os om, hvordan hormoner og gener forenet med vor sanselighed, følelser og familiebånd betinger os. Jeremias minder os om , at den guddommelige ild der nærer et  menneskes indre både kan betinge en profets sjæl og et behov for at udtrykke den. Jeremias var ikke på niveau og havde ej heller modet og dristigheden til at samle Israel forenet med en gennemtænkt plan for at forene landet. Og dog så blev han det foretrukne offer for  samtidens jødiske samfunds dekadence. Man drev ham ud på fortvivlsens rand, fortalte ham jeg knepper din mor, den lesbiske møgluder. Men selv efter at Israel påny var ødelagt forblev Jeremias med sine fontæner af tårer husket og værdsat af folket. I Verdis opera Nabucco hører vi det jødiske slavekor synge disse linier:

Va’, pensiero, sull’ali dorate;
Va, ti posa sui clivi, sui colli,
ove olezzano tepide e molli
l’aure dolci del suolo natal!,

På dansk:

Gå, tanker på gyldne vinger

Gå, slå jer ned på skråninger og bakkedrag

Hvor varmt og blødt og velduftende er

Den søde brise af vor hjemland!

Den gælder som Italiens uofficielle nationalsang, fortalte min ven Tullio Ciampa mig engang, men tiderne hvor Østrig undertrykte italienerne er forlængst ovre. Han giftede sig i øvrigt langt senere med sin Valentina Tremante, en sicililianer med alt hvad dette indebærer.

Men man kan ikke vælge at være Guds folk. Man er udvalgt. I det mindste indtil omfattende fred i Mellemøsten er brudt ud, og Israel forsonet med sine naboer og sin historie ved at blive integreret i denne omskiftelige og ustabile naboregion til Europa. Forstillingen om at jøderne er et udvalgt folk stammer eftersigende fra, valget af hvem der er den bedre hyrde og bliver ophøjet og dertil valgt til at lede flokken. Og det er alt hvad jeg har at sige om forskellen mellem at støtte politikken og at forme den. For vi er tjenere.

Lachaim -Abrahamsen!

Preamble

The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, hereinafter referred to as the “Parties,” guided by the principles of the United Nations Charter and relevant United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs), and recognizing the need for lasting peace and stability in the South Caucasus region, hereby enter into this comprehensive peace agreement.

Article 1: Territorial Integrity and Borders

1. The Parties reaffirm their commitment to the territorial integrity of each other, in accordance with UNSCRs 822, 853, 874, and 884.
2. The existing international borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan shall be respected and maintained, with the exception of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions, which shall be addressed through negotiations.

Article 2: Establishment of Diplomatic Relations

1. The Parties establish full diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level.
2. Embassies shall be opened in the capitals of Yerevan and Baku within six months of signing this agreement.

Article 3: Nagorno-Karabakh Negotiations

1. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh shall be addressed through negotiations, with the active participation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, and BSEC.
2. The Parties commit to engaging in good faith negotiations to find a mutually acceptable solution, taking into account the interests of all affected communities.
3. Compensation for lost property and reparations for affected individuals shall be part of the negotiation agenda.
4. The rights and security of minorities in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas shall be guaranteed.

Article 4: Return of Displaced Persons

1. The Parties shall facilitate the safe and voluntary return of displaced persons to their original places of residence, in accordance with UNSCR 874.
2. The border commission shall consider the impact of population movements on territorial claims and address issues related to property rights.

Article 5: Areas of Cooperation

1. The Parties shall promote economic cooperation, trade, and infrastructure development. Specific areas of cooperation include:
   • Telecommunications: Joint efforts to enhance connectivity and digital infrastructure.
   • Transportation: Collaborating on road, rail, and air transport projects.
   • Energy: Exploring joint energy initiatives and renewable energy sources.
   • Cultural Exchange: Encouraging people-to-people interactions and cultural programs.

Article 6: Dispute Mechanisms

1. The Parties agree to establish a Dispute Resolution Mechanism to address any disagreements arising from the implementation of this agreement.
2. The mechanism shall include mediation, arbitration, and consultation processes.
3. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs may be invited to assist in dispute resolution when necessary.

Annex I: Border Commission

1. The border commission shall consist of representatives from both Parties and international experts.
2. Its mandate includes:
   • Demarcating the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
   • Identifying areas of dispute.
   • Proposing solutions for disputed territories.
   • Ensuring transparency and adherence to international norms.

---

This comprehensive peace agreement aims to address the complex issues surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh while fostering cooperation and stability in the region. Further negotiations and detailed agreements will be necessary to implement the provisions outlined above.

Zangezur Corridor

The Zangezur corridor is a concept that has gained prominence since the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. It revolves around the idea of creating a transport corridor that would connect Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (an exclave of Azerbaijan) and, in a broader sense, link Turkey to the rest of the Turkic world through Armenia’s Syunik Province.

Here are some key points about the Zangezur corridor:

1. Purpose and Controversy:
   • The corridor aims to provide unimpeded access for Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan without having to pass through Armenian checkpoints.
   • It has been promoted by Azerbaijan and Turkey, while Armenia has consistently objected to it, considering it a form of propaganda.
   • The terminology, potential routes, and modes of transport connections have been points of contention between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which have maintained a mutual blockade since 1989.
2. Historical Context:
   • Zangezur was originally a district created by the Russian Empire in 1868, covering an area that now corresponds to the southern part of Armenia.
   • The area of Syunik/Zangezur was disputed between the first republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan between 1918 and 1920 after the collapse of the Russian Empire.
3. Recent Developments:
   • Azerbaijan has initiated construction projects on its territory, presenting them as part of the implementation of the so-called Zangezur corridor.
   • During 2021 trilateral talks, Armenia expressed willingness to participate in rebuilding the Soviet-era railway links historically connecting Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, which Azerbaijan interpreted as Armenian consent to the corridor.
   • However, Russia has emphasized that the discussions are about unblocking regional communications, not necessarily creating a corridor.
4. International Perspectives:
   • Some view the Zangezur corridor as a pan-Turkist agenda, while others emphasize the need to resolve the blockade.
   • Russia’s role as a security guarantor for the route has also been highlighted.

Gazakh Conflict

The Gazakh conflict is another historical dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Here are the key points:

1. Background:
   • Gazakh is a region in northwestern Azerbaijan, bordering Armenia.
   • The conflict over Gazakh dates back to the early 20th century, with territorial claims and tensions between the two countries.
2. Territorial Dispute:
   • Gazakh has been a point of contention, with both sides asserting historical and cultural ties to the region.
   • The collapse of the Soviet Union exacerbated the dispute, leading to clashes and territorial claims.
3. Current Situation:
   • Gazakh remains a disputed area, and its status is yet to be fully resolved.
   • The conflict has implications for regional stability and relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In summary, both the Zangezur corridor and the Gazakh conflict are complex issues with historical roots. Resolving these disputes requires careful diplomacy, cooperation, and respect for international agreements.

Resolving territorial disputes and historical conflicts between nations requires a delicate balance of diplomacy, cooperation, and goodwill. Here are some steps that can contribute to peaceful resolution:

1. Dialogue and Diplomacy:
   • Engage in Constructive Talks: Both Armenia and Azerbaijan should commit to sustained dialogue. High-level negotiations, facilitated by international mediators, can help find common ground.
   • Track Record of Diplomatic Efforts: Build upon existing diplomatic efforts, such as the OSCE Minsk Group’s mediation role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
2. International Involvement:
   • Mediation and Facilitation: Involve neutral third parties, international organizations, and neighboring countries to mediate and facilitate negotiations.
   • UN and Regional Organizations: Leverage the United Nations and regional bodies (such as the European Union) to provide a platform for dialogue and dispute resolution such as EUSR Toovio Klar.
3. Legal Framework and Agreements:
   • Refer to International Law: Base negotiations on established principles of international law, including respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and human rights.
   • Peace Agreements: Develop comprehensive peace agreements that address territorial claims, minority rights, and economic cooperation.
4. Specific Measures for Nagorno-Karabakh:
   • Status Quo: Maintain the current ceasefire and avoid escalations.
   • Return of Displaced Persons: Facilitate the safe return of displaced individuals.
   • Joint Economic Projects: Explore joint economic initiatives that benefit both sides.
5. Zangezur Corridor and Gazakh Conflict:
   • Zangezur Corridor: Address the corridor issue through negotiations, considering historical context and regional interests.
   • Gazakh Conflict: Engage in talks specifically addressing Gazakh, seeking mutually acceptable solutions.
6. People-to-People Initiatives:
   • Cultural Exchange: Promote cultural exchanges, educational programs, and people-to-people interactions to build trust and understanding.
7. Public Awareness and Education:
   • Inform the Public: Educate citizens about the importance of peaceful resolution and the benefits of cooperation.
   • Media Responsibility: Encourage responsible reporting to avoid inflammatory narratives.
8. Long-Term Commitment:
   • Patience and Persistence: Understand that lasting peace takes time. Commit to sustained efforts beyond short-term gains.

Remember that peace is a collective endeavor, and it requires the commitment of governments, civil society, and individuals. By fostering understanding, empathy, and compromise, we can work toward a more stable and harmonious future in the region.

What is role of the Council of Europe ?

The Council of Europe (CoE) plays a crucial role in upholding human rights, democracy, and the rule of law across the European continent. Let’s delve into its functions and relevance:

1. Mission and Goals:
   • The CoE, founded in 1949, brings together 46 member states with a combined population of approximately 675 million as of 2023.
   • Its primary objectives include promoting:
     • Human Rights: Ensuring respect for fundamental rights and freedoms.
     • Democracy: Supporting democratic institutions and practices.
     • Rule of Law: Upholding legal principles and justice.
2. Distinct from the European Union (EU):
   • Although often confused with the EU, the CoE serves a different purpose.
   • No country has ever joined the EU without first belonging to the CoE.
   • The CoE focuses on broader European cooperation beyond economic integration.
3. Key Bodies within the CoE:
   • European Court of Human Rights (ECHR):
     • Operates based on the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) of 1953.
     • Individuals can bring cases against member states for human rights violations.
   • Committee of Ministers:
     • Comprises foreign ministers from each member state.
     • Coordinates policies and monitors compliance with CoE agreements.
   • Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE):
     • Composed of national parliamentarians from member states.
     • Discusses and debates various issues, including human rights and democracy.
   • Commissioner for Human Rights:
     • Promotes awareness of and respect for human rights within member states.
4. Role in International Agreements:
   • The CoE cannot make laws but can advocate for the enforcement of select international agreements.
   • It provides a platform for member states to collaborate on legal, cultural, and social matters.
   • The CoE is an official United Nations Observer.
5. Zangezur Corridor and Gazakh Conflict:
   • The CoE can facilitate dialogue and promote adherence to international conventions.
   • It encourages peaceful resolution of territorial disputes.
   • Azerbaijan’s willingness to compensate the Karabakhis aligns with CoE principles of human rights and reconciliation,i.e. Aliev is conscious about he is committing ethnic cleansing. Like in Kosovo, this pits Islam against Christianity.

In summary, the CoE serves as a vital forum for European nations to address shared challenges, protect human rights, and foster cooperation. Its work extends beyond economic considerations, emphasizing values that contribute to a stable and just Europe. The Council of Europe is still to pronounce itself on the dispute. Apparently the organisations’ General-secretary prefers to hub-nub with leaders. Do you have an opinion about that ?

What is the role of the BSEC ?

The Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) emerged as a distinctive and promising model of multilateral political and economic collaboration. It was established through the Istanbul Summit Declaration and the Bosphorus Statement, signed by the Heads of State and Government of the countries in the region on June 25, 1992. The organization aims to foster cooperation and development in the Black Sea region.

During the Turkish presidency, the BSEC has indeed witnessed efforts to enhance its role and impact. Turkey has actively supported initiatives aimed at ensuring peace and prosperity in the Black Sea area. President Erdoğan emphasized Turkey’s commitment to this cause during the 25th Anniversary Summit of the BSEC Heads of State and Government, where he stated that turning the BSEC into a worldwide organization is a collective achievement of its member states.

However, it’s essential to recognize that the BSEC faces challenges due to political disputes among some member states. These disagreements can hinder the organization’s effectiveness. President Erdoğan has emphasized the need to utilize the BSEC as a tool for problem-solving, avoiding unproductive political debates.

Regarding the situation in Gazakh, it’s crucial to consider diplomatic mediation. Comanescu, as a potential mediator, could play a significant role in facilitating dialogue between the parties involved. Turkey’s support for Gazakh underscores its interest in regional stability and cooperation. A diplomatic approach, backed by both Turkey and Comanescu, may contribute to finding peaceful solutions and promoting mutual understanding.

In summary, the BSEC’s authority has indeed been strengthened during the Turkish BSEC presidency, and diplomatic efforts, including mediation by Comanescu, could be valuable in addressing regional challenges. More could be done to strengthen the BSEC ahead of the policy review of the EU’s fledlging Black Sea strategy, which is not a mere prolongation of Turkey’s equivocation between Ukraine and Russia.

Peace and reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey could contribute to both unblocking the stalled negotiations betwen Azerbaijan and Armenia, and be conducive to a strengthening of the BSEC as a prealable to the forging of a unit in the EEAS endowed with more means to better lubricate the policy-machinery vis-a-vis the EU’s sub-regionals, included the BSEC. We want European policies not bilateral ones led by France, Germany and Turkey onto which scarce funds and disparate projects are grafted. I might add, while the Eu’s strategy towards the Middle East is not as comprehensive as I personally could wish for, the European Union have an inherent interest in a stable Middle East satisfying our energy supply interests and keeping Israel safe and secure. That is also to say, we are not into tripwires of the wrong sort and of tempting Teheran beyond reason in order to justify regional war for the tactical purpose of playing people out against each other at the expense of the Palestinean’s legitimate interests. Policy right now is to contain wider conflict through coordinated action in Gaza and the South Caucasus. Stronger and better coordination should follow. I note UNSCR2272 is sufficiently broad to allow for offensive action act against both challenges to peace and security and threats to navigational safety, athough it is unclear to which extent the force packages and will of the naval commandars and participating states in Operation Propserity Guardian and in the EU’s Aspidis are robust enough to weigh in on wider regional concerns to ensure effective crisis management.

In addition, better coordination between EUSR Klar and Turkey behind the scenes to steer a series of bilateral negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow, Istanbul , Bucuresti, Paris and Bruxelles might come handy.

Having said that, I agree with that the EU and the US positions are converging on Iran, even if we dont have identical interests. The US want to prevent two-front war, the EU to deter authoritarian states from coalescing. The US is interested in shaping an international environment in the Middle East conducive to peace and the accession of Turkey to EU, while the EU is not curently capable of much more than enabling stabilisation and at the same time have interests of its own that are more intensive due to geography and its enlargement strategy. This begs the question: Should the EU and Israel talk more together about post-war security architectures and in whose peace a limited strike could be conducted after all avenues have been exhausted for the creation of a stable regional order, disrupted by the Iranian revolution and made worse by the Iraq war ?

https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/d/echr/guidelines_p16_eng

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2023/747919/EPRS_BRI(2023)747919_EN.pdf

https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/armenia-ready-for-full-normalization-with-turkiye-political-will-needed

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9368688/

The report, prepared by rapporteurs Guy Verhofstadt, Sven Simon, Gabriele Bischoff, Daniel Freund, and Helmut Scholz, aims to reshape the European Union (EU) by enhancing its capacity to act and improving its democratic legitimacy and accountability. Key proposals include:

1. European Constitution: The report advocates for a new European Constitution that consolidates existing treaties and clarifies the EU’s fundamental principles.
2. Citizens’ Participation: To enhance democratic representation, the report suggests introducing elections of the President of the European Commission by popular vote and creating a European Electoral Authority.
3. European Senate: The establishment of a European Senate, representing member states, would strengthen the EU’s legislative process.
4. European Public Prosecutor’s Office: The report proposes expanding the powers of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office to combat cross-border crime effectively.
5. European Armed Forces: It recommends creating a European Armed Forces to enhance security and defense cooperation.
6. Social Rights: The report emphasizes social rights, including a European minimum wage and improved labor standards.
7. Climate Action: The EU should lead in climate action, with binding targets and a European Climate Pact.
8. Digital Sovereignty: The report calls for digital sovereignty, protecting citizens’ data and promoting European tech innovation.
9. EU Budget: The report suggests a more flexible EU budget, allowing for strategic investments.
10. EU Enlargement: The report addresses the accession process for new member states.

https://oeil.secure.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/printsummary.pdf?id=1764556&l=en&t=E

https://oeil.secure.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/printsummary.pdf?id=1764556&l=en&t=E

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-9-2023-0337_EN.html