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We believe the creation of a defensive state at the heart of Euroasia should be to the benefit of the citizenry and promote peace and democracy in the world.

Asien er fremtiden.

BURMA Posted on Mon, December 20, 2021 18:50:25


Anmeldelse af Cand.scient.pol. Christian ILCUS ( 902038)
Parag Khanna The Future is Asian. Global Order in the Twenty-First Century, 2019.
“Fem milliarder mennesker, 2/3 af verdens mega-byer, 1/3 af verdensøkonomien, 2/3 af den globale økonomiske vækst, seks ud afti af verdens største banker, tredieve af Fortune100, otte af de ti største hære, fem atommagter, massiv teknologisk innovation, de nyeste knopper af top-rangerede universiteter. ”
Sådan præsenterer dr. Parag Khanna, en global strateg, sin bog om Asien, der er nutiden og hvem helt sikkert fremtiden tilhører. Derfor er der grund til at spidse øre, når den i Singapore bosiddende inder fatter penen. Bogen er inddelt i ni kapitler: (1) Verdenshistorien: Et Asiatisk synspunkt (2) Læren af Asiens historie – for Asien og Verden (3) The Return of Stor-Asien (4) Asianomics (5) Asiatere i America og Amerikanernere i Asien (6) Hvorfor Europa elsker Asien men ikke endnu asiaterne (7) Afroeuroasiens tilbagevenden (8) Det Nye Stillehavs-partnerskab (9) Asiens Teknokratiske fremtid (10) Asien Går Global: Fusion af Civilisationer (11) Asiens Globale Fremtid.
En rød tråd igennem bogen er, at Asiaterne kræver og aftvinger respekt. Mens Vesten udkæmpet Den kolde Krig, legede Asiaterne catch-up. I dag har asiaterne den største andel i den globale økonomiske vækst under omstændigheder med geopolitisk stabilitet, hurtigt ekspanderende økonomisk vækst og øgede national stolthed. Asiaterne opfatter sig på ny som verdens centrum. Asiaterne producerer og eksporterer såvel som importerer og forbruger flere varer end nogen anden region, og asiater handler og investerer mere med hinanden, end de gør med Europa og Nordeuropa. Asien har flere af verdens største økonomier, det meste af verdens valutareserver, mange af de største banker, industri- og teknologifirmaer og de fleste af verdens største hære. Det har ti gange flere mennnesker end Europa og tolv gange så mange mennesker som Nordamerika. Derfor gælder det om at kunne se verden fra asiaternes synspunkt, understreger Khanna. Asien er ikke et kontinent, men strengt taget en megaregion, der strækker sig fra Japan-havet til Rødehavet. Rusland, Kina, Australien, Indien og Kazakhstan udgør nogle af verdens største lande, mens de folkerigeste lande er asiatiske: Kina, Indien, Indonesien, Pakistan, Bangledesh, Japan, Phillipinerne og Vietnam. Asien er førstog fremmest en geografisk beskrivelse forskellig fra Kina og Fjernasien, der vedrører Stillehavet. Diplomatisk, økonomisk og kulturelt var Anatolien og Kina en koherænt helhed fra det 15. århunderede. Khanna tilslutter sig Buzans opfattelse, at menneskelig historie var opdelt regionale systemer.
Politisk er Europa den mest integrerede region, erkender forfatteren, og europæerne har også opfattet Asien som et stort og givende økonomisk markeder med stigende regional bevidsthed.
Khanna skriver ikke noget om det kinesiske kommunistpartis inflydelsesstrategier i Vesten, men forholder sig kritisk til Kina, idet han siger, at Asien som helhed skal udvikle god regeringsførsel, retsstat og respekt for menneskerettigheder. Demokratisk konsolidering og statseffektivitet er udbredt i Asien. Han mener, at et stærkt teknokrati er fremtiden for Asien, inclusive for Indien, Pakistan og Bangledesh, og forudser at teknokratiet vil blive styrket i Europa som følge af Asiens opstigen.



Europe Defence

Europe, Uncategorised Posted on Mon, December 20, 2021 18:47:55

It is useful from time to another to recognize the virtue and piety of man in harmony with his life, in the absence of ambition and disinterest in honors. The strategic compass paints a subtle horizon, yet not without ambition, as it offers support to the US in the Indo-pacific in return for US support for her yearning for great powerhood in Europe and adjacent areas. One must pause to consider whether the strategic compass can succeed in resolving the conflicting demands of deterring Russia and China and to become security provider in its near abroad in cooperation with the United States. Can EU combine, without undermining either or both, an ideal of European Security and Defence Policy with the submergence of EU in a greater Western “organic” whole ?
I propose the following to rouse the audience from its dogmatic slumber to make a more tightly-knit Europe Defense . Increasingly, the ESDP must be organized around integrated and community-based approaches rather than joint and coordinated , without ignoring the potential of more rational organization of European capabilities , even as defense integration is pursued in a spirit strategic autonomy and operational interdependence. A state must have a common defense, yet EU could not , for now, strive for more than being an integrated fiscal-military actor. And so, EU must scale-up in order to be able to shape the international environment and attain greater balance in transatlantic relations the difficulty of which should not be underestimated:

Institution–Building

• Command-and-Control cell in the EU COM Pres Office to guide the insertion of EU Battle Groups under article 222 EU Solidairty clause: terrorism and natural disaster and pandemics. Thus, prerogative to assist to shift to EU COM Presidency rather than an alliance by mere request upon civilian protection.
• A EU Defence Commissioner uniting all offices dealing with defence matters – EEAS defense structures, DG DEFIS, crisis management structures from DG ECHO – & Frontex in the EU Commission.
• Europe Defense Agency (EDA) Forum for Sustainable Development > Center for Alternative Fuel. Consider a council working party between defence and energy on sustainable development.
• Grand strategy formulation process every fifth year. Consider European European Security Office in the EU COM Presidents Office.
• An ESDP budget line with tax receipts allocated by Parliament upon proposal by the EU Commission following decision by the General Affairs Council towards financing of purposes related to ESDP. Thus, off-budget defense funds such as European Defense Fund, European Peace Facility, Connecting Europe facility to be brought on-budget in the middle term (5-7 years).
• Defence dialogue inserted into EU’s strategic partnerships, in the case of EU-US partnership, without prejudice to NATO Article V-cooperation. Strengthening of EU-NATO partnership allowing for dual-hatted troops.
• A 30,000 logistically integrated European Intervention Force ((EIF) backed-up by air combat system and drones to be resorted to by the Council at the propo-sal of the EU Commission upon consultation by the European Parliament.
• Consider a 10,000 EU Marine Corps following a joint Franco-German initiative.
• An Intel4 Review under the new General-Directorate for Military Intelligence numbering 1200 men and women
• An EU Military Targeting Center numbering 30 employees to be established medium-term acting en liaison with the EU Military Intel DG.
• An European Centre of Oceanography and Metereology (ECOM) to be located in Malmø ( flanked by an Indigenous People Centre in CPH in support of EU’s IP Policy).
• Joint Support Coordination Cell to be transformed into Joint Support Coordination Center numbering 125 staffers, seconded by EU and Member states. Consider to include therein a unit on development, concepts and doctrine for multi-domain integration, to act in liaison with EU Military Staff ( EUMS). Institute for Security Studies ?
• The Military Planning and Conduct Capability (MPCC) to be transformed into a permanent EU Operational Headquarters EU OHQ by 2025 for the operational conduct of all civilian and military ESDP missions.
• Strengthening of the European Security and Defense College (ESDC) vis-à-vis Member States & External partners’ Military Academies to comprise a two-year MA &and opportunities for practical ECTS-credited training modules in leadership & people management, European history, geography, sociology, English, foreign languages, International Security Studies, Policy & Strategy in the Origins, Conduct and Termination of War, International Political Economy, Intelligence, Space Policy, Systems & decision sciences, military strategy. Naval Strategy, Cyber Power, Deterrence, UN & Peacekeeping, Disarmament and Arms control.

Policy

• Strengthening of the TFEU’s provisions on a European Arms Export Policy as backed-up by European industrial mergers and strategic alliances.
• Air Security: Regular patrols of EU’s Air Space by European avionics – EU Air Guard – without prejudice to NATO article V-contingencies. Air Security strategy to be promulgated in due time. Air-to-air refuelling and long-range air transport capability to be procured by EU.
• Maritime Europe: Coordinated Maritime Presence (CMP) to encompass eva-cuation capability/rescue operations. EU maritime security strategy & action plan to be reviewed regularly. Long-range sea transport is to be procured by EU.
• Long- Term: EU Military Attachés in EU Delegations to strategic partnership-countries.
• Annual Joint EU-NATO Military Exercises, included measured against TEU Article 42(7) content & North Atlantic Treaty article V-contingencies.
• Bi-annual military exercises between EU & Strategic partnership-countries in the middle term ( +5-7 years).



Russia and EU

Europe Posted on Mon, December 20, 2021 18:45:59

EU and Russia

Certainly, Russia two treaty proposal on security guarantees and measures constitute an opportunity address systematically the future of the relationship between Ukraine and Russia, Russia and the European Union:

Ukraine
Since parting ways in 1991 Russia has sought to reintegrate Ukraine into its orbit. This is driven by ambition and a desire for a Eurasien empire. The steppes nurture restlessness. What be done ? Russia could pay a ransom of 1 trillion USdollars for Crimnea. Seperatist forces and Russian forces should leave the Donbass region. Scenarios could be build on treaty-based cooperation between Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine to accede to Eu, but not NATO.
Belarus
Belarus to come under Russia security protection, yet free elections also to be held, i.e. Lukashenko must be ready to leave political office.
Moldova
The republic of Moldova to accede to NATO and EU either as an independent country or through reunification with Romania.

South Ossetia, Abkhazia & Transnistria
Russian PKF to be relived of their duties subject to a negotiation between EU, the US and Russia..
EU Stabilisation Force to be deployed to Transnistria.
Georgia to be free to choose alliance – NATO & EU – provided it is transformed into a federation.
EU-Russia
Once sanctions are lifted, strategic partnership to be launched, including dialogue on security and defence and implications of EU enlargement for Russia. Eu to engage Russia in Baltic, Arctic and Black Sea. EU to substantially upgrade Black Sea Strategy, included independent budget line.