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We believe the creation of a defensive state at the heart of Euroasia should be to the benefit of the citizenry and promote peace and democracy in the world.


Middle East Posted on Sun, February 04, 2024 16:20:27

  1. Preamble

The State of Israel and The Arab Republic of Lebanon

Having regard  to their desire for establishing business-like relations based on cooperation

and conflict and their commitment to good neighbourliness as democracies and market economies;

Affirming    that this agreement is concluded within the framework of UNSCR 1397 &  

1525 and 1701;

Reiterating              their adherence to the principles of the Barcelona-declaration;

Determined             to open a new chapter in their relations in the common pursuit of peace and


Confirming             the principle of land for peace in terms of UNSCR 242 & 338;

Recognizing            the contribution of comprehensive peace to a Middle Eastern state system

free of political interference and interactions respective of each other’s iden-tities;

Have agreed as following

2. Peace Agreement

A peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon is to be concluded five years from the conclusion of this accord, at which point full diplomatic relations will be established.

3. Border Commission

A Border Commission is established towards the delimitation of the land, sea and air borders between Israel and Lebanon, whose work is to be finalised during the course of this agreement.

4. Political Dialogue

A high-level political dialogue will be established between the parties in order to address and better understand mutual perceptions of security/insecurity.

A Regular Dialogue between the IDF’s Northern Command and the Lebanese Army’s Southern Command as well as the parties’ respective Border Police Commanders are to be conducted for the management of the parties’ border towards the dismantlement of the UNIFIL-mission accor-ding to separate agreements.

The delimitation of the Maritime Borders will be undertaken using the newest technological advances, and otherwise as well serve the purpose of joint exploitation of the sea bed as con-venient.

  1. Water

In order to ensure the development and deepening of bilateral relations, the parties agree to enter into agreements concerning water sharing pending the resolution of outstanding issues on water-ways crossing their mutual border, and agree to cooperate with regional and global institutions in developing their mutual interests in the policy area, without prejudice to third parties’ rights and interests.

  1. Peace and Conflict

A comprehensive programme to address all levels of peace-building between the parties are established at the conclusion of this accord.

Lebanon undertakes to assume full sovereignty over its territory and to disarm and reintegrate mercenaries and proxy-forces into regular army and law enforcement units, and otherwise as well integrate former fighters into society.

Israel undertakes to pursue peace agreements with both the Palestinian National Authority and with Syria, upon which comprehensive peace in the Middle East are hinged.

Israel undertakes to make $1bn available for UNRWA to address the plight of Palestinean refugees, residing or having taken refuge in Lebanon, resulting from war, towards settlement of this refugee issue without prejudice to the rights of third parties under international law.

  1. Peaceful Relations

Haifa University and the Issam Fares Institute will steer pertinent research projects and dialo-gues amongst academics of both countries and in the region in order to improve the mutual understanding for each other interests and concerns and the process through which images of enmities and friendship may arise and dissolve.

People-to people programmes will be established to underpin this dialogue.

8. Cooperation

The parties intends to conclude a bilateral free trade agreement to supplement normalisation of links, following the conclusion of a peace agreement(s), no later than five years from the initial-ling of this framework accord.

Explorative talks in both regards may be undertaken in due course.

  1. Entry into Force & Arbitration

This accord is subject to ratification according to the procedures provided for in the legislation of each Contracting Parties, and comes into force on the day of exchange of documents of rati-fication.

The accord shall be deposited in the Foreign Ministries of the contracting parties in English, Arab and Hebrew version, as notified to the UN Secretariat by virtue of the UN-Charter Article 102.

Should disagreement arise over the implementation of these articles, the parties agree to submit them to arbitration at the International Court of Justice ( ICJ).

Done,                                                                        March 202x

For Israel                                                                                         For Lebanon


UN MAP of The Blue Line

Terms of References of the Lebanese-Israeli Border Commission

Agreement between IDF and the Lebanese Army concerning Border Security


Middle East Posted on Sun, November 04, 2018 16:58:45

I just uploaded ‘Labyrinth of Ali’ to @academia!

The paper analyses Iran’s reform agenda in terms of administrative and regional reform, land reform, ministerial double structures, the organisation of foreign trade and constitutional reform.


A path forward ?

Middle East Posted on Mon, April 25, 2016 09:54:38

EU-PNA-ISRAEL: A Path Forward

quibbles in the EU-Israeli Relationship has allowed to express strong views
about the course of the Middle East Peace Process, and to engage in dialogue
about legal venues for moving the pro-cess forward through confidence-building
on the ground, without detriment to the bilateral rela-tionship, even as a
stronger partnership is forged. There is general agreement, the political,
econo-mic and cultural links between the European Union and Israel is and must remain strong.
In addi-tion, the current impasse serves to distract attention from more
pressing issues. An EU-Israeli Task Force has recently been forged. The
question arises how best to address issues of mutual concern towards instilling
a logic of collaboration and a spirit of partnership. There is a territorial
aspect to this process of piecemeal incrementalism to ensure better management,
more contiguity.

It is
understood a multi-bilateral security, economic and humanitarian package in Jerusalem subse-quently
could further the four-pronged approach as derived from WCO-principles on
accumulated rules-of-origin. This could also serve to finesse the current EU-Israeli
argument, allowing for the export of Israeli brands as brands without labels or
produce from Israel:West
Bank; provided the egregious packaging and labelling cases in the agricultural
field can be solved to mutual satisfac-tion. Fostering business relationships
and transparency in chain of customs are complementary to a mutually reinforcing
process on both sides of the Green –line. After all, a well-managed Palestine needs to
reflect what confer a sense of security to both people and help changing mutual
perception, so as to deescalate in a manner conducive to the resumption of
negotiations. Enter the organisatio-nal set-up, interaction between the parties,
third party roles, role of educational institutions and the media as well as
joint projects.

Perhaps, a
mini action plan is called for along the following lines:

1. Europol MED Country –reports versus EU & MS Action Plans on Anti-Semitism &
Xenophobia > Task Force & Ministerial In-put.

2. A Zim (&
Mærsk) Shipping Information Information Pipe-line versus ISR-PNA Trade & Business Promotion Action

3. Bedouin Policy Centre at Ben Gurion University
versus EU-Funded landscaping projects in the Negev ( Water & Health facilities).

4. UNESCO Regional Office in Jericho versus
UNESCO Office-cum Faith-Based Peace –Building Dialogues in the Old Town of Jerusalem >

5. Ma’an
Training Centre and Library outside Development Zone versus Aqaba Biz


Middle East Posted on Mon, November 09, 2015 13:21:54


Sinai is
the home to Millennia old culture, and to a good many Sinaite Bedawi tribes,
who continue to be nomads or wander about. Its geopolitical position is derived
from its position between the Africa, the Arabian peninsula and the Asian
continent, the clash from which the gorgeous Sinai Mountain range, mountain
passes and a few verdant Wadis has evolved. It holds a mild winter climate and
the best coral reefs of the Red Sea and controls the straits of Tiran towards Elat and Aqaba. The peninsula has served as
an area of military mobilisation throughout the ages, yet has long been a
backwater from the perspective of Egypt. At the crossroads of ancient
cultures, the wife of Emperor Constantine founded a monastery here in the
honour of Saint Catherine to ring church bells throughout the valley and
collect manuscripts in defence of the adopted faith of the empress and her

Sinai’s mountain
range holds several high peaks, and is fabled to hold the mountain where Moses instead
of leading his people to Caanan’s land led them through the mountain passes in
order to acknowledge the Hebrew tribes as a dynasty of priests and the Jews as
a holy nation to be governed by the Ten Commandments. As Moses pushed through
monotheism as a mean to unify his nation
in search of universality and discovery of the Eternal in place of the Egyptian
governance system, which tended to subsume man’s soul under the things, and the
Hebrew’s pagan practices of infan-ticide, fertility cult and solar adoration, he
choose Israel as his country through volcanic ashes and fog by way of Midian in
Saudi Arabia. Henceforth, Israel
should incarnate the word of the Lord, a particularism by law , a novel type of
association reminiscent of ritual artifices in Africa.

To be true,
Sinai would have remained an underdeveloped and poor noman’s land had it not
been for the occupation by Israel
of the Sinai peninsula twice during the
1967-73 wars, out of which the first hotel developments took place and Sharm El
Sheikh became known internationally as a tourist destination. When the
peninsula was finally recovered to Egypt
following the Camp
development started in earnest. The Gulfis are important investors and the
place remains popular with for people from all over Egypt to go for work. There is a
presidential palace in Sharm El Sheikh. Sharm has hosted several international
conferences and is considered a prime resort of the Mediterranean,
one of few which combines a dry climate, sea side and +20 degrees Celcius in
shuttle distance during the winter months.

In some
ways, development has been too fast, and the local population has started
feeling margina-lised, as the revenue has not returned into the economy.
Following a recent attack in Taba, the Bedouins started to become marginalised
in the tourist economy. The upheaval created by the Egyptian Revolution has
made Sinai into a refuge for Jihadis, who have been launching an under-ground
war against the reinstated military regime.

To redress
matters in the tourist sector, Sinai might be just a good a place to start
reform than anywhere else in Egypt.
Here are my proposals for your use and consideration:

First, EU
is bound to lead. EU is the world’s biggest air space by volume, and Air
Transport Safety is an exclusive competence of the EU. There are important
numbers of tourists travelling from EU to Egypt,
Egypt is an important member of the
Euro-MED Partnership – Hey Partner!

There are
three models: (1) A Multi-bilateral Euro-MED Air Transport Safety Treaty (2) A
multi-lateral agreement (3) A bilateral Eurocontrol-Egypt Agreement to be
implemented in parallel to the hatching of a Sinai mini-action plan pounding
the consequences for the remainder of the Mediter-ranean.

Eurocontrol could conduct a review of the agreements with all riparian states
of the Mediter-ranean to ensure ICAO standards are respected in all airports,
which European tourists use most frequently. An agreement in this regard has
recently been made between EU and the Gulf Coope-ration Council (GCC), the
Gulf-states have made important investments in coastal development of the Sinai peninsula.

practice, third states can be integrated into the Single European Sky-(SESII)
to various degrees, and the management of airports is an important component to
overall aviation network performan-ce, i.e. SESII is partially a mechanism for
making international obligations more binding based as it is on EU-law.
Passenger also holds rights. Once agreed and codified, the nations
participating in the rescue effort, having citizens killed, should put together
a military team to knock –out ISIL in Sinai for good.

Second, Egypt needs to
improve the infrastructure in Sinai, and has to make more of a habit out of serving
the tourist and the local population, so that the kitschy accents is replaced
with a more con-fident approach. A Performing Arts Hall, Museum and a modern
Library should be added in SSH. The tourist police should be strengthened.
Public transportation streamlined. A single pricing air ticket system could be
introduced. The Bus Station could be modernised, and security increased. Investments
need to be made in the local economy including in Dahab and Sharm townships. Im-portant
invest-ments are needed throughout the most important cities of Sinai,
including El Arish in the name of economic growth and employment creation with
sound returns to the people.

policies needs to be adopted to ensure the loyalty of the Bedouin population,
who is indigenous in many ways to the land. Some of them will prefer to be
nomads and go on with their lives, as long as access to food and water are
ensured, and health and education ser-vices are available. A good many will
seek work in the coastal areas. Others might think, the time is ripe to
organise a more permanent Council of Sinaite tribes as a consultative organ of
the Sinai province to address their grievances and channel this population
segment’s interests in this quasi-autonomous area.

Fourth, an
integrated approach to counter-terrorism and insurgency needs to be adopted, so
as to ensure effective peace-building. This should not pose a problem as Egypt claims to
have achieved 90% of its objectives in its counter-insurgency campaign in the
deserted areas of this otherwise as well forbidding terrain. There is the relationship
with Israel
which may be wondering why it should keep elevating the limits placed on troops
allowed on the peninsula under the peace agreements, in return for an apparent
decrease in security provision. Indeed, a pipe-line is running through Sinai to
Israel and Jordan,
providing amble opportunity for dialogue and exchange. Currently, flights from
Tel Aviv to Elad are diverted from Egyptian air-space and undertaken with
flares only, a contribu-ting factor to the building of a new (cargo) airport. There
is trafficking in human beings, migrants and in drugs, crossing the Sinai Province.
The fence between Egypt and Israel has contributed to a lessening of concerns for spill-over
onto the bilateral relationship, although not eradicated the causes of the
revolt. For this dialogue is necessary. There are links of old between Sinai
and Gaza.

Fifth, the
hoteliers and real estate developers must be convinced to carry their share of
the burden in the remainder of Sinai, so that the benefits of the rent seeking
economy is more equally distributed in full dialogue with the authorities of
the Sinai province. This will have to be supported by the cen-tral government.
Experiments with democratic governance will have to be introduced at a later
stage. The oligarchs of Egypt
are the slaves of no one and should partake in the deliberations on sound and effective
economic management in Egypt
and help Egypt
towards a new concord between state-society. Perhaps, a national wealth fund should
be created in this regard, as the wildcats of Egypt’s energy fields starts to
spin. Next, the civil-military relationship could be taken-up.

Egyptians are a proud people not a nations living of tourists, revisiting past
glories. Masr, however, needs to demonstrate its acumen to govern well in order
to once more claim the mantle of Arab leadership. And so, the Euro-Med
Partnership remains a partnership for modernising elites, who wants a more open
society in political, economic and cultural terms.

Christian ILCUS


Middle East Posted on Wed, October 21, 2015 11:30:11


Given that East Jerusalem under international law is occupied and
the Palestineans have a right to self-determination pending final status
negotiations, the question arises how to proceed, so that stabilisation can be
wrought out of the crackdown, prompted by Turkish, Iranian and Iraki meddling
into Israeli affairs. Suffice to say,
securitisation-cum-Bantustani-policy will lead Israelis to become Jews banging
their heads against the Wailing Wall. In Europe,
we will not stand idle by , if the situation is exploited by each party’s
demons or accept violations contrary to a peaceful solution to the
Israelo-Palestinean conflict let alone a wider conflagaration in an already
turbulent neigh-bourhood. IDF’s plan to pinch out the Palestineans from East
Jerusalem short of reconquest of the West Bank
is particularly worrisome. Increasingly, the Security Wall is serving not
merely as a remedy for Israeli complaints about the PNA but also as a cover for
the accumulation of discrimina-tory laws and policies belonging to a bygone
era; politicide is the term coined by Baruch Kimmer-ling.

A more
forward looking approach is needed, without prejudice to final status
negotiations. From the perspective of Europe,
this could be conceived in terms of a discussion about how arrangements for
power sharing, wealth-sharing and inclusion could become integral to a positive
logic in the Middle Eastern Peace Process. Peace and conflict management,
however, tend to be separate entities in the Holy Land,
reserved for peace negotiators. They should become integral to transitional
conflict-management in a daily power practice, which is subtle yet not without

In terms of
power-sharing the Geneva-agreement evolved essentially out
of a political dialogue on power-sharing wrought out in an informal setting, so
as to provide a template for a solution of the conflict to an extent that it is
considered difficult to improve on, although implementation & verification
mechanisms as well as an international separation-of-forces was contemplated as
well. The Geneva-accord helped inspiring the UNSCR’s, granting the
Palestinean’s a right to a state. For the part of Arab East Jerusalem, I should
like to make it understood the Arab areas could be organi-sed as municipal
districts under an East Jerusalem Congregation of Mayors. The departure point
for this could be the existing Arab municipalities under titular
administration, who would then be re-sponsible for the management of local
affairs. The district mayors of East Jerusalem would then gather in the
Congregation of Mayors led by a well-respected Arab Jerusalem personality, who
would then coordinate the collective in-put of the Arab sector into the Jerusalem Town-Hall policy-making and planning
process, in order to ensure a more proportional allocation of funds and
posi-tions to Arabs, in so far as municipal affairs are concerned.
Resuscitating local government in Arab East Jerusalem would tend to underpin
peace-building in a positive way. Consider also relocating

J’lem M.I.T
Vision Group
to this entity. Sooner or later elections would have to be held,
albeit experiences are not unequivocal. As long as Israel
considers East Jerusalem annexed qudsi Arabs have minority rights – so do the
Arab Christians in both Israel
and PNA-land. Thus, we shall pro-vide the conditions for a strengthening of
secular Palestinean Arab leadership in terms of democra-cy-building in the Arab
world. For this properly working Palestinian institutions are needed – can you
follow me ?

In time, I
hope the inter-ministerial commission on Jerusalem of the Israeli cabinet will
become ob-solete, in so far as its tasks would be delegated to a well-governed
capitolinian city, a city where a few statal institutions of Palestine would
located in East Jerusalem, and Jerusalem be united in terms of bi-communal
dialogue and interaction.

In the
interim, I propose a change to the labels, behind which Israel covers-up her encirclement
po-licy in the Greater Jerusalem Area. Enter the dissolution of the Commission for the Completion of Plans.
The Office of the Guardian of Absentee
should be led by an Israeli Arab, and the staff equally
represented by Jews and Arabs. The Israeli Law
on Home Demolition
ought to be rescinded. The draft Law on Jews Praying on the Temple Mount should be withdrawn or
declared null and void in terms of UNSCR252 & 478 or indeed at ICJ. That is
to say, all territories occupied have a non-status under international law
pending negotiations as a matter of principle, a principle which will form the
departure point for negotiations.

In terms of
wealth-sharing, the Paris-protocol
outlines provisions for international aid, strengthened Israelo-Palestinean
economic relations, provisions for foreign and private investment as well as
Pa-lestinean access to foreign markets. The Paris-protocol hasn’t worked
satisfactorily for reasons of the state of the Palestinian economy and their
policies as well as Israeli actions, whilst problems remain with accepting
current WTO law, a requirement for the smooth operation of the Euro-MED FTA.
Both parties are unhappy with the workings of their Customs Union, whilst Israel
has curtai-led the relative independence of Palestinean civil society in Arab
East Jerusalem in a manner, which is changing the character of the city and
strangulating the prospects for peace – a Bremer-moment. Suffice to say,
interdependence minimizes the risk for warfare and tend to work in favour of
con-flict transformation, most comparative studies of conflicts suggest. The
question concerning the inter-connections with the West Bank hinterland would
likely have to be deferred, albeit changes to the Security Wall in and around
Jerusalem could be considered and the uses of new technology could be taken
under study facilitating urban development, seamless access and trade and
exchange, without prejudice to final status negotiations. Let plans for a new
municipal headquarters be drawn-up in a new Jerusalem, more capable of
competing with Tel Aviv, a common desire by most Jerusa-lemites Arab and Jews
alike unlike the provincial back-water, the Ottomans and the British made of
the Holy Basin. In the meantime, Amman
and Cairo could
accede to the Global Urban Power Index-network pending the resumption of
negotiations in the bilateral track.

In terms of
inclusion, it is important to define
the actors, power and interest and to respect existing agreements. Israel
may have erred on the side of caution, and needs to rethink its approach.
Societies struck by terror may find temporary relief in barriers, yet to heal
multipronged strategies at several levels are necessary. This has proven a
conceptual and emotional challenge before a political one to shifting Israeli
governments, some of whom have adopted a security-first
approach at the rhetorical level and distanced themselves from the Oslo
Accords, without providing a genuine alternative – consociationalism ? – even
as they have applied themselves to address the problem in terms of the tank
battles of the past – Sinai and Kursk – in a bi-communal, urban setting. The
result is visible to all. More people-to-people programmes could be relevant to
broaden participation during transition. There is the UNCTAD -study concerning
the necessary policies an occupying power would need to service a subjected
populace, which could serve as an aide memoire for a better management of
anti-poverty policies. In redistributional terms, there are implications for
the working arrangements of the current civil organisations , into which Arab
East Jerusalem society have been relegated or quarantined. The departure point
for this could be a return to status quo
in terms of the operation of educational institutions, unions and
cultu-ral institutions and the development of infrastructures under the new
Arab administrative units in order to provide the conditions for relevant trade-offs during peace negotiations.
Inclusion also means narration of the stories of the Palestinians and Israelis,
both of whose societies are under-going fundamental change these years – the
Israeli largely to the better, the Palestinian largely to the worse.

As long as Israel and the Palestinians remains at
logger-horns, it will become difficult for Israel to fully integrate into the
Middle Eastern mainstream. To obtain a perspective it might be useful to
recognise that a first-past-the-vote-voting
system inside Israel
in place of the current dual voting system, would be useful following solution
of the conflict, only. Thus, a representative system could come into place,
without prejudice to the manipulation of settlement patterns inside Israel
and the co-existence of pluralist societies would be safeguarded, even as the
Israeli party landscape could be reinforced under a two state, two
democracies-model of governance. Consider a higher cut-off at 5% for the monkey
cage as well.

Now, ‘when
you are exceeded by traditional values, man tends to orient himself towards
ideologies, which deny them. And it is by their negative force they seduce
rather than their positive formulas’, comparable to an engineered revolutionary
moment. So, in many ways this is a conflict between traditionalists and
modernisers. Hamas is steering-up trouble, yet tend to adjust its vision of
con-trolled violence and co-existence under a maximalist formula as a function
of the government in place in Israel,
entangled as the rivals are. Miscalculations and opportunism are also very much
present – on both sides. In addition, there are people who are prepared to use
political violence in both Israel
and Palestine
in order to capture the state. The solution to this is diplomatic, political
and economic engagement. This is the least unlikely manner to address spoilers,
manipulators and insti-gators, which are also present in the Holy
Land. Above all, the parties’ need to pay greater attention to how
processes of reasoning intervenes in other people’s lives, and legitimises and
require stale-mate.

And so, the
parties should refrain from undertakings, which will lead to the collapse of
the peace process. Indeed, the combined measures of a functioning political
dialogue at all levels, political comity in J’lem as well as an increase in
economic interdependence and investments will enhance the quality of
peace-building, yet the street and Hamas will remain a challenge in this
seemingly intractable conflict. Suffice to say, the MEPP is in need of more
discipline on the concepts and theories it uses in building peace, and to
delineate those from peace negotiations proper. Transitio-nal management is an ardous task. Enter then EU’s call
for substantial steps towards de-escalation.

In the
alternative, the parties may agree to disagree and then move pragmatically
onwards with a modernisation of the three remaining Armenian, Arab and
Christian quarters of Old
Town intro muros . The practical work should be delegated to a UNESCO
office and back-rolled primarily by Israel. This collective effort is
supported by all members of the different communities in the Old Town and
might even attract more business, while leading to pavements less charred for
the tou-rists, who matters for Jerusalem’s
economy, and to a rise in living standards and housing prices. On this basis, a
micro-cosmos would have been created pending the return of calm. This is a
gentle approach. Enter also the use of faith-based peace building.

self-interest should guide wider policy reviews. This applies to policies
concerning the incentives and disincentives provided the dissident settlement
movements, Victim Advisory, Con-flict & Dialogue Centers, anti-poverty
strategies, the prerogatives of the Waqf in its Old Town precinct, policies
concerning the Israeli Arab minority, crime reduction policies, the rise in
organi-sed crime, a Bedouin Policy Center, an ombudsman for administrative and
consumer affairs, confe-rencing on contending modernities in the Holy Land.
This is what all competent and effective Israeli political leaderships would be
concerned about developing resolute policies for.

Should a
gap between perception and actual behaviour persist in the Middle East, and Israel
con-tinue to ‘manage the conflict’ in a primitive , regressive , provocative
and one-sided manner, the gloves will come off. EU could then together with the
U.S. Administration seek to provide the conditions for a restructuring of the
domestic Israeli coalition, which is fascist in its origin and undemocratic to
no small extent also in its power practices.


The Next Crisis: Sahel

Middle East Posted on Thu, January 17, 2013 14:26:57

The Next Crisis: Sahel

Sahara is sand. And from sand, nothing comes. Except glass, wind and more
sand. Once upon time, caravans plied the hinterlands of the fertile coastal
lands of North Africa. They did so in the name
of Islam. Riding on camels, transporting goods across the caranverserais of the
desert. Today, this flourishing trade is but a distant memory of past glory,
invoked by an increasingly rabid bunch of smugglers, arms dealers, and AQIM,
nurtured by grievances of the indigenous people of the Maghreb ( the “west”),
the Berbers and Touaregs, and stoked by the Algerian branch of the Salafist
movement, turned into a terrorist movement proper under the name GSPC,
screaming for justice out in the Algerian desert, following the theft of their
election victories. The war in Libya
meant a new tribal mix and the collapse of central authority. The arms depots
are now wide open. Enriching elites has been replaced by a chaotic transition.
The youngsters now feel let down by Europe, and action is needed now to make a
difference and to restate Europe’s stake in the stability of the southern Mediterranean:

I.Re-establishing Constitutional Order in Mali

The notion of a desert state in Mali has rapidly gained traction as a result of
two developments: The capture of land by the rebel brigands and the coup d’ etat in Bamako by
young officers, keen to enrich themselves and divide the spoils of the whatever
wealth remains in Mali.
This needs to be reversed and coupled to peace plan proper, the initiative of
which has to be Malian-owned through the establishment of civilian rule.

2. Regional cooperation

Containing the crisis in the Maghreb takes at
least three-four moves: (A) Europol MED country reports (B) A state-of-affairs
on Union
Maghreb Arabe
(UMA) (C) DDR-programmes as quasi-horizontal axis within
Euro-MED ( Libya, Lebanon, Palestine,
Tunesia). (D) Renewal of the diplomacy on the Saharawi conflict through US- EU

3.United Nations and African Union

The geopolitical depth of the African Union has
suffered as a result of the collapse of the regime of the al-guedadfas. The UN,
however, has scored some success in Niger, which also holds a
substantial Touareg population, whose liberation movement has added critical
mass to the esta-blishment of an Azawad-state. For this reason, both UN & AU
are key to a post-stabilisation mis-sion in Mali.

This has to be backed-up by an European
stake in arms market in Algeria,
e.g. drones.

The oil companies ought to contribute on access to arable land, which once more is fuelling conflict, dressed-up in islamist garments.

4.Inter-regional Dialogue: EU & ECOWAS

ECOWAS, the West African regional outfit, is an
ally of old of the Europeans. It is the demandeur, and its gameplen is linked to international military intervention, French leadership and west African troop deployment. The political track has been taken care off by a troika, consisting of Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Algeria. The latter is itself heavily involved in Mali. Its policies of pushing rebels into the desert and the outflow from Libya has meant trouble along with the region’s status as major drug traficking route. Mali, at the same time, is pivotal to West Africa and the defunct Ecowas. A comprehensive approach to Sahel must therefore involve a change of behaviour in Algers about the way it handles its own Toareg population, coupled to a comprehensive approach to the situation in Mali. Ghaddafis demise means ECOWAS’ rise within an African setting.

ECOWAS, however, ain’t functioning that smoothly, despite
holding prominent and wealthy members in their midst such as Ivory Coast, a key
player in the coffee markets and Nigeria, a state rich in oil & gas. The
ECOWAS PKF is in such a poor state and marred by disciplinary problems that
even if the member governments wanted to deploy them, they need to
go through the African Union to get the job done in Mali. And so does EU.

This suggests France as a lead-partner and its coalition will have to do the brotherpart of liberating Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal, where the rebels are deployed in a manner to play on the differences between France and Algeria, which is constrained by the presence of a certain number of Algerians amongst the rebels, the presence of its intelligence services in the region and its neglect of its own southern popolation. It was Algiers that insisted France had to take prompt action prior to the rain season.

Even so, the links between West Africa and Europe are such and Mali’s heritage and status within ECOWAS is such that an extra effort is desirable. EU
should therefore consider investing through the ESDP Academy
and/or the UN Peace-Keeping Department, the necessary resources to make the
military branch of ECOWAS work smoothly. In addition to the ressources already committed, is could also comprise assistance to make ECOWAS work better. This a medium-term endeavour, yet the
crisis in Mali
and the region’s many civil wars, not to mention the constant of the Saharawi peoples struggle, Algeria’s compromised policies point to the need for EU, UN & AU to engage in this pivot, straddling the subsahara, the great rivers of Niger and Senegal and smuggling routes between Latin America, Africa and Europe. Indeed, words are around that the onslaught on In Amenas gas plant is linked to an internal fight over drug revenues, spilling over from Sahara.

Eu could then give thought the hatching of a regional energy transmission plan for West Africa, as it reconsiders the inter-regional dialogue between EU-Ecowas.

So what about Syria’s game ?

Middle East Posted on Thu, April 19, 2012 00:01:01

Security Council expresses its full support for the efforts of the Envoy to (1) bring an immediate end to all
violence and human rights violations,
secure humanitarian access, and (3)
facilitate a Syrian-led political transition to a democratic, plural political
system, in which citizens are equal regardless of their affiliations or
ethnicities or beliefs, including through (4)
commencing a comprehensive political dialogue between the Syrian Government and
the whole spectrum of the Syrian opposition.

“To this
aim, the Security Council fully supports the initial six-point proposal submitted to the Syrian
authorities, as outlined by the Envoy to the Security Council on 16 March
2012, to:

1) commit
to work with the Envoy in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address
the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people, and, to this end,
commit to appoint an empowered interlocutor when invited to do so by the Envoy;

2) commit
to stop the fighting and achieve urgently an effective United Nations supervised cessation of armed violence in all its
forms by all parties to protect civilians and stabilize the country.

To this
end, the Syrian Government should
immediately cease troop movements towards, and end the use of heavy weapons in,
population centres, and begin pullback of mili-tary concentrations in and
around population centres.

As these
actions are being taken on the ground, the Syrian Government should work with
the Envoy to bring about a sustained
cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties with an effective
United Nations supervision mechanism

Similar commitments would be sought by the Envoy from the
opposition and all relevant elements to stop the fighting and work with him to
bring about a sustained cessation of ar-med violence in all its forms by all
parties with an effective United Nations
supervision mechanism;

3) Ensure
timely provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the
fighting, and to this end, as immediate steps, to accept and implement a daily two-hour humani-tarian pause and
to coordinate exact time and modalities of the daily pause through an efficient mechanism, including at local

4) intensify the pace and scale of release of
arbitrarily detained persons
, including especially vulnerable categories of
persons, and persons involved in peaceful political activities, provide without
delay through appropriate channels a list of all places in which such persons
are being detained, immediately begin organizing access to such locations and
through appropriate channels respond promptly to all written requests for
information, access or release regarding such persons;

5) ensure freedom of movement throughout
the country for journalists and a non-discriminatory visa policy for them;

6) respect freedom of association and the
right to demonstrate peacefully
as legally guaranteed.

Security Council calls upon the Syrian Government and opposition to work in
good faith with the Envoy towards a peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis
and to implement fully and immediately his initial
six-point proposal.

Security Council requests the Envoy to update the Council regularly and in a
timely manner on the progress of his mission. In light of these reports,
the Security Council will consider further steps as appropriate: “

of de-escalation of violence has subsequently been addressed by UNSCR2042,
stipulating that heavy weapons has to be redeployed and soldiers and tanks then
return to barracks. At the same time, the Security Council has ordered the
opposition from refraining from actions, leading the government to renege on
its obligations.

A step-by-step
approach could then be adopted towards a peaceful settlement in Syria:

1) Syrian FM sets-up a unit to liaise
with the UN: The UN Humanitarian Mission produces a report according to
international standards: Relief, Recovery & Reconstruction as agreed upon,
whereas DPKO provides technical assistance on modalities of PKF.

2) United Nations supervised cessation of armed violence. > Authorized under UNSCR2042 in two

3) EU: The
negotiations of the EU-Syria association agreement remains suspended, and
sanctions are frozen at their current level, provided fulfilment of Annan’s
six-point plan, which are divided into an initial phase and permanent one
towards settlement. The nor-malisation of EU-Syrian links furthermore requires
that the preamble of the Syrian constitution doesn’t violate Syria’s
commitments under the Barcelona-process.

4) The Syrian Government and SNC are to meet to three rounds of talks between
the next Friends of Syria-conference and before the elections in order to agree
on (1) State-ment on the Issues of
the Conflict : Implementation of Constitution, Economic Reform, Humanitarian
Issues etc etc (2) Dialogue Forum
between the Government and the oppo-sition is agreed as per the remit of the
UNSC Presidential Statement: The role and trai-ning of the Army ?
Constitutional Court ? The status of political parties under the law ? Jointly
Agreed Economic Reform Programme: From Soviet Back-water to Market Eco-nomy ? Parliamentary
influence over the budget ? Political Prisoners ? The competen-ces of the
National Comptroller vis-à-vis the President, Intelligence apparatus and Mini-stry
of Defence ? Ombudsman ? Establishment of independent commission for the vet-ting,
training and procedure for appointment of judges ? Date of election ? Truth and
Reconciliation Committee ? (3) The
Terms of a Unity Government ? Co-habitation ?

5) KSA rescinds weapons delivery to Syria in return for which Iran rescinds weapons ex-ports to the Houthi in Yemen.
Teheran accepts Lebanon’s
sovereign choices

6) Annan’s Six-point plan is fully implemented. Humanitarian Issues: Humanitarian corridor,
Internally displaced and Refugees are addressed in a systematic manner. This
has to be compared to the Syrian government’s wish to extend an amnesty.

7) Annan puts forward a consolidated mutually agreed plan for peaceful settlement to the conflict in Syria,
which is internal in nature, regional in scope and global in repercus-sions.
The extent of the persecution of crimes committed or otherwise not redeemed is
made subject to deliberation, so that the persecution of the most egregious
crimes assist in the transition process in Syria. The sensitive issue of Mr.
Bashaar Assad’s intentions under the Constitution may have to be deliberated at
this stage, too.

8) EU considers Syrian access to select
ENP-programmes with adequate expertise and fun-ding and Syrian participation in
sub-regional entities.

Russia reassures Syria on WMD,
inclusive through the despatch of security troops to relevant sites, to be
confirmed by EUMS to FMC.

CIB and
UN-administered DDR-programmes are to attain quasi-horizontal character under Barcelona-process,
integral to European policy and tool-box for transition management in the Mediterranean. At the same time, they are administrative
pointers to be buttressed and amplified by the politics of wider negotiations.

It is
recalled the despatch of the European Gendarmerie Corpse is subject to a
mandate by UN, EU or OSCE, and that its remit focuses on various aspects of
auxiliary policing tasks, whereas its level of armament can be modulated to the
character of the mission. EGF needs notification of one month for deployment,
and is currently partially deployed in Afghanistan under the overall command
of NATO’s EU Unit.

OIC Academy on Human Rights, Rule-of-Law &
Good Governance has ensued by then.

FMC then determines
the conditions under which high-level negotiations on a Euro-MED association
agreement with Syria
may be resumed.

What is
the significance of Chinese and Russian engagement then ?

The Lion of Shams

Middle East Posted on Sun, February 19, 2012 22:10:55

As things starts to unravel in Syria, the international community can with
dismay stand-by and marvel at the death struggle of one of strongest
regimes in the Middle East. The days of the regime seem numbered, yet Syria is an actor of some importance in the Middle East, a buffer between geopolitical
fault lines. And so, a power vacuum rarely exist in this area for a very
long time. But how can this crisis and political transition best be managed ?

1. US-China must work on a new UN Resolution on Syria, acceptable to all parties.

2. Russia must continue working with Assad on the Constitutional process.

3. Turkey is by far the best placed country to handle the humanitarian
crisis both inside Turkey and in the no man‘s land, separating the two countries.

4. As the international community cohere on Yemen, Iran and KSA must
engage in bilateral rounds on issues, salient to the region and their
rivalry: Political Islam, Yemen, Irak,Syria and Gulf security.

5. Israel must curtail any arms delivery into Syria, and Hizbollah must
drop the export of drugs into Northern Israel. UNODRUGS may follow-up in
Lebanon through a beefed-up effort, in return for which Israel might
want to consider an additional effort on inter-agency coordination in
Northern Israel.

These measures combined ought to help stabilise the situation of what is
already a very volatile situation. EU must then adapt its
approach to the Mediterranean, encompassing ENP, the Barcelona-Process,
MED Union, the OSCE Mediterranean Dialogue and provide the greasing
needed through EIB, the Deauville-initiative and the IMF. A policy review of the UNDP-programme on Arab Human Development is sorely needed as well.

End Game: Iran

Middle East Posted on Wed, September 28, 2011 12:49:42


The European Union

by the US as the diplomatic
actor of choice in Europe and its adjacent areas, leading to the integration of
into Club Med.

has an inherent interest in the integration of the Muslim world into the
international community

a comprehensive peace in the Middle East is of
paramount importance to European security and considered a requirement for the
transformation of the EU from a global actor to a world power

the extended boundaries of the European Union in respect of the potential and
ultimate integration of Turkey,
whose flank the United
States has been massaging rather well.

extension of a strategic energy partnership to Iran
in respect of a putative democratic peace in Eurasia.

and modernisation of the inspection partnership between Euratom-IAEA, a sine
qua non for denying the US
the opportunity for organising European Defence under NATO and its nuclear
planning group.


regime stability and authority of the clerical establishment.

of employment, economic growth and investments.

of role in the Persian Gulf.

the Middle East using the Shia crescent as

a positive role in the Middle East in respect of an end to religious wars
around the Mediterranean.

the modernisation of the economy, congruent with Iran’s
geopolitical pivotal position between Europe and Asia
and the needs of a new international environment.

revenues from the creation of a gas cartel.